Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for July 17 - 23, 2025
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Experts think rates will increase over the next week, according to the majority of rate watchers polled by Bankrate this week.
Of those polled, 50 percent predict rates will rise, 31 percent expect rates to stay flat and 19 percent think rates will drop.
The average 30-year fixed rate was 6.81 percent as of July 16, according to Bankrate’s national survey of large lenders, up from 6.78 the previous week.
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Explore mortgage ratesRate Trend Index
Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed
Week of July 17 - 23, 2025
Experts say rates will...
| Go up | 50% |
|---|---|
| Stay the same | 31% |
| Go down | 19% |
Like a funhouse mirror showing you a figure you don’t want, mortgage rates will continue to stretch higher, reacting to the stock market gains. — Derek Egeberg, MortgageOne
50% say rates will go up
Ken Johnson
Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi
Since the end of June, the yield on 10-year Treasurys has moved steadily up 20 basis points. The average 30-year rate has moved correspondingly. While the drivers of these increases can be debated, the results are clear. A worldwide lessening in demand for U.S. debt is pushing its price down and yield up, resulting in higher long-term mortgage rates. No reason to expect things to change. Thus, it should be more of the same next week. Therefore, 30-year mortgage rates should increase again next week.
Joel Naroff
President and Chief Economist, Naroff Economic Advisors , Holland , PA
Up. [There are] some signs that tariffs are starting to slowly make their way into the system.
Dan Green
President, Homebuyer.com , Cincinnati , OH
Up. The U.S. dollar is weakening, so mortgage bonds are losing value. Rates are moving up.
Greg McBride, CFA
Chief Financial Analyst, Bankrate , North Palm Beach , FL
Concerns about inflation, tariffs and Fed independence are keeping bond yields and mortgage rates elevated.
Derek Egeberg
Branch Manager, MortgageOne , Yuma , AZ
Mortgage rates [will] continue higher. Like a funhouse mirror showing you a figure you don’t want, mortgage rates will continue to stretch higher, reacting to the stock market gains.
Robert J. Smith
Chief Economist, GetWYZ Mortgage
Inflation persists, [and] the autonomy of the Fed may be challenged — expect continued upward pressure on rates as the market prices this in.
Michael Becker
Branch Manager, Sierra Pacific Mortgage , White Marsh , MD
Mortgage rates can’t seem to catch a break lately. Despite better-than-expected inflation data in both the CPI and PPI reports, mortgage rates are higher than they were last week. [It] seems markets are concerned about increases in tariffs and reports that Trump may fire Powell. Because of this, I think mortgage rates will be higher in the coming week.
Nancy Vanden Houton, CFA
Senior Research Analyst, Stone & McCarthy Research Associates , New York , NY
Up.
19% say rates will go down
Jeff Lazerson
President, MortgageGrader
Down. Mortgage rates were edging down before the latest Trump tariff tirade… Once the markets absorb this, rates will move lower again.
Dr. Anthony O. Kellum
President & CEO, Kellum Mortgage , Roseville , MI
I think rates will go down this week. We’re continuing to see signs of a softening economy, moderating job growth, easing inflation and consumer spending that’s beginning to show strain. These indicators, taken together, suggest that the Federal Reserve is likely to remain on hold, with growing pressure to begin shifting toward a more accommodative stance later this year. The bond market seems to be responding accordingly, with yields trending slightly lower as investors anticipate a less aggressive path forward from the Fed. Unless we see an unexpected data release that sharply changes the inflation narrative, I expect a mild dip in rates.
31% say unchanged–
Richard Martin
Director of Home Lending, Curinos
I don’t expect a ton of volatility this week, and rates [will] remain mostly unchanged by EOW. CPI was the big report and that came in aligned with expectations for the most part, Core slightly lower reading. Don’t expect much else in terms of hard data to cause swings.
Dick Lepre
Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA
Rates should stay flat this week. I expect the Fed to lower the overnight rate at month’s end. This will mark a period of declining rates.
Nicole Rueth
Market Leader, The Rueth Team of Movement Mortgage , Denver , CO
Rates are still stuck in a holding pattern. Tuesday’s CPI should’ve been a win for bonds, but the rally reversed fast as tariff fears crept into key inflation categories. With PPI showing softer data and fewer signs of tariff pressure, bonds are treading water, watching and waiting for a clearer signal before making their next move. Our biggest risk to rates right now is the threat of removing Jerome Powell from Fed Chair.
James Sahnger
Mortgage Planner, C2 Financial Corporation , Jupiter , FL
Unchanged. Interest rates have risen and are approaching critical technical levels to prevent further increases. I believe the support will hold, and rates should remain rangebound.
Melissa Cohn
Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage
Mortgage rates will again be rangebound as the markets digest new inflation data as well as updated tariffs. With no relief from the Fed in sight, we will be back to data watching, especially as it relates to inflationary pressures from tariffs.